4.45 Newmarket
Haafhd Handsome 9/4 generally available
Win Bet
Wednesday, 19 October 2011
Monday, 10 October 2011
Our First Bet
1.40 Yarmouth
Jwala - currently 16/1 Hills and L:adbrokes
We advise an each way bet as it is unlikely to be out of the frame given its work at home.
Jwala - currently 16/1 Hills and L:adbrokes
We advise an each way bet as it is unlikely to be out of the frame given its work at home.
Thursday, 22 September 2011
Patience And Discipline
Thanks to boycee for taking the trouble to post the comments below.
As we have said, we do not intend to give more than one or two bets per month on average, and clearly this will not suit some people as they prefer to bet much more frequently. Some professionals take something of a scattergun approach to their betting, reasoning that the more money they turn over, the more likely they are to show a profit.
The only way to make a long term profit from gambling is to either be very lucky, or alternatively to restrict your betting to those occasions when the odds on offer are greater than the chances of success.
It appears to us somewhat unlikely that these opportunities arise several times a day, or indeed several times a week.
We prefer, therefore, to only bet when we have reason to believe that the price on offer about a horse does not truly reflect its chances of success. That is the reason why we have not yet advised a selection.
We believe that our selections will be profitable, and that anyone with the patience and discipline required to wait for these exceptional opportunities will be well rewarded.
Only time will tell...
As we have said, we do not intend to give more than one or two bets per month on average, and clearly this will not suit some people as they prefer to bet much more frequently. Some professionals take something of a scattergun approach to their betting, reasoning that the more money they turn over, the more likely they are to show a profit.
The only way to make a long term profit from gambling is to either be very lucky, or alternatively to restrict your betting to those occasions when the odds on offer are greater than the chances of success.
It appears to us somewhat unlikely that these opportunities arise several times a day, or indeed several times a week.
We prefer, therefore, to only bet when we have reason to believe that the price on offer about a horse does not truly reflect its chances of success. That is the reason why we have not yet advised a selection.
We believe that our selections will be profitable, and that anyone with the patience and discipline required to wait for these exceptional opportunities will be well rewarded.
Only time will tell...
Sunday, 18 September 2011
Racing Post Tipster Advertisements
How good is Peter Naughton as a tipster?
How good is Derek Thompson as a tipster?
Unfortunately, it would appear that you have no way of finding out.
If the size of their adverts is anything to go by, they are making people who phone their premium rate telephone numbers ( £1.53 per minute ) a shedload of money. It must cost them a fortune to be able to place those huge adverts in the Racing Post on a regular basis, right?
Wrong!
The Racing Post, apparently, don't charge them for their adverts, they simply take a percentage of the revenue from all those £1.53 per minute phone calls. And the size of those adverts just depends on how much space there is in that day's paper to fill. A very cosy relationship for all concerned.
It might also go some way to explaining why Bruce Millington never appears to respond to any requests for information about proofing details which, of course, would give a true record of the profit ( or more likely loss ) that subscribers to these services would experience.
Come on Bruce, it's about time you were more open with your dwindling readership about these services.
As things stand, it would appear that you could be accused of being complicit in an elaborate scam.
Personally, we at Peerless Racing would like you to set the record straight once and for all.
It's so simple.
Just insist on advertisers in your paper publishing their Profit and Loss records.
How good is Derek Thompson as a tipster?
Unfortunately, it would appear that you have no way of finding out.
If the size of their adverts is anything to go by, they are making people who phone their premium rate telephone numbers ( £1.53 per minute ) a shedload of money. It must cost them a fortune to be able to place those huge adverts in the Racing Post on a regular basis, right?
Wrong!
The Racing Post, apparently, don't charge them for their adverts, they simply take a percentage of the revenue from all those £1.53 per minute phone calls. And the size of those adverts just depends on how much space there is in that day's paper to fill. A very cosy relationship for all concerned.
It might also go some way to explaining why Bruce Millington never appears to respond to any requests for information about proofing details which, of course, would give a true record of the profit ( or more likely loss ) that subscribers to these services would experience.
Come on Bruce, it's about time you were more open with your dwindling readership about these services.
As things stand, it would appear that you could be accused of being complicit in an elaborate scam.
Personally, we at Peerless Racing would like you to set the record straight once and for all.
It's so simple.
Just insist on advertisers in your paper publishing their Profit and Loss records.
Friday, 16 September 2011
Cash Is King
It is fair to say that, in many respects, the punter has never had it so good. If you have any doubt, take a glance at the Pricewise table in the Racing Post every Saturday. In recent weeks, it is not uncommon to find the best odds percentage at under 100%. For those who are not aware, that means that you could back every horse in the race at the best available prices and guarantee yourself a profit.
The so-called Big 3 bookmakers, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral, are using these headline races to entice customers into their shops by offering top prices on the fancied horses. They do this in the hope that you will then place other bets on races where they bet to a higher margin, or better still you will put some money in the roulette machines while you are in there.
If you choose to place your bet on their standout prices on the phone or the internet, and are smart enough to only bet when you spot a decent price, don't expect your account to last long before you are heavily restricted. It is a fact that winners are not welcome, and anyone who shows even some signs of having half a clue about what they are doing is not entertained for long. Your account will be marked up in next to no time and you will find your maximum bet reduced to pennies.
Fortunately, there are still several thousand betting shops in this country, and with a bit of time and effort it is still possible to get bets on at advertised prices when you spot a decent price. However, you can expect your bets to be monitored closely by the shop staff if you are selective, and it is only a matter of time before things get much harder.
The best way to enhance your chances of getting bets on is to look after the shop staff when you back a winner. You may be surprised how well spent that tip you give them might turn out to be in the long run. Many shop staff are happy to tell you what their limits are before they need to phone bets through to their traders, and this information is extremely valuable. Make sure you stay under the limits, look after the staff, and you will last a lot longer.
The so-called Big 3 bookmakers, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral, are using these headline races to entice customers into their shops by offering top prices on the fancied horses. They do this in the hope that you will then place other bets on races where they bet to a higher margin, or better still you will put some money in the roulette machines while you are in there.
If you choose to place your bet on their standout prices on the phone or the internet, and are smart enough to only bet when you spot a decent price, don't expect your account to last long before you are heavily restricted. It is a fact that winners are not welcome, and anyone who shows even some signs of having half a clue about what they are doing is not entertained for long. Your account will be marked up in next to no time and you will find your maximum bet reduced to pennies.
Fortunately, there are still several thousand betting shops in this country, and with a bit of time and effort it is still possible to get bets on at advertised prices when you spot a decent price. However, you can expect your bets to be monitored closely by the shop staff if you are selective, and it is only a matter of time before things get much harder.
The best way to enhance your chances of getting bets on is to look after the shop staff when you back a winner. You may be surprised how well spent that tip you give them might turn out to be in the long run. Many shop staff are happy to tell you what their limits are before they need to phone bets through to their traders, and this information is extremely valuable. Make sure you stay under the limits, look after the staff, and you will last a lot longer.
Thursday, 15 September 2011
Today's bet - Cancelled
Good morning
Regrettably the bet does not go ahead today. It has come to our attention that another horse in our race is seriously fancied and we do not need to take any unnecessary risks.
We will update you as soon as our next bet materialises. We know that patience is one of the most important qualities in being a successful service.
Wednesday, 14 September 2011
First Selection Runs Thursday
Our first selection is due to run tomorrow afternoon at Yarmouth.
It will be sent by email to those who have requested to be put on our mailing list, and then it will be posted here and on Twitter as a means of proofing.
If you would like to receive early notification of future selections, please send an email to peerlessracing@gmail.com and we will add you to our mailing list.
It will be sent by email to those who have requested to be put on our mailing list, and then it will be posted here and on Twitter as a means of proofing.
If you would like to receive early notification of future selections, please send an email to peerlessracing@gmail.com and we will add you to our mailing list.
Tuesday, 13 September 2011
Betfair Changed Everything
The betting ring on a racecourse was once a place buzzing with excitement. It was full of characters on both sides of the divide, with bookmakers shouting the odds to attract custom, punters scouring the boards for the best price on their fancy. The Silver Ring was often the place to go in search of a rick - someone would get his opening show from the Sporting Life, or better still the Sun.
Up went the show, in flew the sharks, over went the bookmaker's joint. Well, not quite as dramatically as that, but you get the idea. It was a battle of wits. The bookmaker would try and strike a balance between stealing a few quid while his colleagues were grabbing a cup of tea or a plate of prawns, and having a decent percentage built into his full show of prices.
Those early shows were invariably 150% and more, because many punters had no concept of value. They wanted to back the horse they had picked out and the price was often irrelevant. Sure, they knew that 8/1 was better than 7/1 but that was about it. Each way terms were standardised in those days so bookmakers would all be offering the same place terms.
You could wander through the ring and prices would sometimes vary dramatically on bookmakers' joints. It was all about opinions. Good bookmakers were rewarded for being right, poor bookmakers went home with an empty hod.
Money was passed around the ring as bookmakers sought to end up with a balanced book. If one book had taken a chunky bet from a punter or one of the off course bookmakers' reps, he would often hedge some of it with another bookmaker within the betting ring. It meant that turnover was healthy, and the money stayed in the ring.
But then things changed.......................
Betfair came along, and things would never be the same again. Initially, on course bookmakers were not allowed to hedge money into the Betfair markets although many used the prices on Betfair to help determine what prices they should offer themselves. If it was 3.8 to back on Betfair, they would go 5/2 on their board.
The logic of using Betfair prices as a guide was a sound one. The markets had been open from the previous evening, and prices had fluctuated as a result of supply and demand. Although liquidity wasn't great, being able to see unmatched orders on both the back and the lay side was often a good indication of which way the price was likely to move.
This led to far fewer pricing errors being made on course, and also meant that there was far less variation in prices on offer with bookmakers in the ring. Opening shows were much easier to form, because you could simply go slightly under the current Betfair price and not make a glaring mistake. As more and more bookmakers cottoned on, the price variations on course became fewer and fewer. Before long, prices became almost uniform. If a price moved on Betfair, it moved on the majority of boards. And in many cases a price was cut without a bet being struck.
On course punters now had to rush to strike a bet if more than one bookmaker cut a price, because they knew that the rest of the ring, almost without exception, would follow suit. It was the beginning of the end.
The next defining moment was when the decision was taken to allow on course bookmakers to use betting exchanges while trading on course. The effect of this was, at a stroke, to turn a large percentage of bookmakers into Betfair Agents. It was no longer about making a book based on your own opinion, you didn't need to have an opinion. For some it was simply about being able to take bets at under the Betfair price and lay it off on the machine. If you chose to, you could actually trade every single bet you took. And some bookmakers did, and still do.
Money which was bet into the ring by Ladbrokes, Hills and Corals which, up until then, had remained in the ring, was suddenly being hedged into the exchange markets. And so was a lot of other money from Joe Public. Turnover was damaged, margins were damaged, the on course market was damaged.
Things would never be the same again..................................
Up went the show, in flew the sharks, over went the bookmaker's joint. Well, not quite as dramatically as that, but you get the idea. It was a battle of wits. The bookmaker would try and strike a balance between stealing a few quid while his colleagues were grabbing a cup of tea or a plate of prawns, and having a decent percentage built into his full show of prices.
Those early shows were invariably 150% and more, because many punters had no concept of value. They wanted to back the horse they had picked out and the price was often irrelevant. Sure, they knew that 8/1 was better than 7/1 but that was about it. Each way terms were standardised in those days so bookmakers would all be offering the same place terms.
You could wander through the ring and prices would sometimes vary dramatically on bookmakers' joints. It was all about opinions. Good bookmakers were rewarded for being right, poor bookmakers went home with an empty hod.
Money was passed around the ring as bookmakers sought to end up with a balanced book. If one book had taken a chunky bet from a punter or one of the off course bookmakers' reps, he would often hedge some of it with another bookmaker within the betting ring. It meant that turnover was healthy, and the money stayed in the ring.
But then things changed.......................
Betfair came along, and things would never be the same again. Initially, on course bookmakers were not allowed to hedge money into the Betfair markets although many used the prices on Betfair to help determine what prices they should offer themselves. If it was 3.8 to back on Betfair, they would go 5/2 on their board.
The logic of using Betfair prices as a guide was a sound one. The markets had been open from the previous evening, and prices had fluctuated as a result of supply and demand. Although liquidity wasn't great, being able to see unmatched orders on both the back and the lay side was often a good indication of which way the price was likely to move.
This led to far fewer pricing errors being made on course, and also meant that there was far less variation in prices on offer with bookmakers in the ring. Opening shows were much easier to form, because you could simply go slightly under the current Betfair price and not make a glaring mistake. As more and more bookmakers cottoned on, the price variations on course became fewer and fewer. Before long, prices became almost uniform. If a price moved on Betfair, it moved on the majority of boards. And in many cases a price was cut without a bet being struck.
On course punters now had to rush to strike a bet if more than one bookmaker cut a price, because they knew that the rest of the ring, almost without exception, would follow suit. It was the beginning of the end.
The next defining moment was when the decision was taken to allow on course bookmakers to use betting exchanges while trading on course. The effect of this was, at a stroke, to turn a large percentage of bookmakers into Betfair Agents. It was no longer about making a book based on your own opinion, you didn't need to have an opinion. For some it was simply about being able to take bets at under the Betfair price and lay it off on the machine. If you chose to, you could actually trade every single bet you took. And some bookmakers did, and still do.
Money which was bet into the ring by Ladbrokes, Hills and Corals which, up until then, had remained in the ring, was suddenly being hedged into the exchange markets. And so was a lot of other money from Joe Public. Turnover was damaged, margins were damaged, the on course market was damaged.
Things would never be the same again..................................
Monday, 12 September 2011
Price Is Everything
Experienced gamblers are well aware of the importance of the price or odds you obtain when you place any bet. Unfortunately, less experienced gamblers often have little or no idea about the link between odds and probability, and therefore are doomed to lose money in the long term.
We hope that this blog will, over time, help to educate people about the factors which have an enormous effect on your prospects of showing a long term profit from your betting activities.
The single most important factor to consider when you place a bet is whether the odds of reward are less or greater than the true probability of that event actually occurring. To give a very simple example, if you toss a coin, there is a 50% chance of it landing heads, and a 50% chance of it landing tails. Therefore, if you were offered 5/4 heads by a bookmaker, it is clearly a good bet. If you were offered 4/5 heads, it is clearly a bad bet.
Of course you could have a situation whereby you backed heads at 5/4 and tossed the coin 10 times, and it landed tails every single time. That is precisely the reason why you should only ever risk a small proportion of your betting bank on any one bet. In the example above, even if you obtained odds of 10/1 about heads, you could very easily lose your whole betting bank if you did not have a sensible staking plan in place.
It is much easier to calculate a fair price on an event such as a coin toss, where we have accurate information about the true probability, than on an event such as a horse race. The true probability of each horse winning a race is very subjective, and is dependent on many different factors. Different people will have different opinions about a horse's chances of winning, and therefore there are sometimes opportunities to obtain odds which underestimate the likelihood of a horse being successful in any given race when you know more about the horse than everybody else, including bookmakers.
You might rate a horse's chances of winning as around 40%, in other words 6/4, yet be able to obtain odds of 25/1 with bookmakers. When this happens, you are still happy to back the horse at 5/2 even if you have missed all the bigger prices which have been hoovered up by those who know the horse's true ability.
If you can regularly obtain 5/2 about a genuine 6/4 chance, you cannot realistically fail to win a lot of money in the long term.
We hope that this blog will, over time, help to educate people about the factors which have an enormous effect on your prospects of showing a long term profit from your betting activities.
The single most important factor to consider when you place a bet is whether the odds of reward are less or greater than the true probability of that event actually occurring. To give a very simple example, if you toss a coin, there is a 50% chance of it landing heads, and a 50% chance of it landing tails. Therefore, if you were offered 5/4 heads by a bookmaker, it is clearly a good bet. If you were offered 4/5 heads, it is clearly a bad bet.
Of course you could have a situation whereby you backed heads at 5/4 and tossed the coin 10 times, and it landed tails every single time. That is precisely the reason why you should only ever risk a small proportion of your betting bank on any one bet. In the example above, even if you obtained odds of 10/1 about heads, you could very easily lose your whole betting bank if you did not have a sensible staking plan in place.
It is much easier to calculate a fair price on an event such as a coin toss, where we have accurate information about the true probability, than on an event such as a horse race. The true probability of each horse winning a race is very subjective, and is dependent on many different factors. Different people will have different opinions about a horse's chances of winning, and therefore there are sometimes opportunities to obtain odds which underestimate the likelihood of a horse being successful in any given race when you know more about the horse than everybody else, including bookmakers.
You might rate a horse's chances of winning as around 40%, in other words 6/4, yet be able to obtain odds of 25/1 with bookmakers. When this happens, you are still happy to back the horse at 5/2 even if you have missed all the bigger prices which have been hoovered up by those who know the horse's true ability.
If you can regularly obtain 5/2 about a genuine 6/4 chance, you cannot realistically fail to win a lot of money in the long term.
Sunday, 11 September 2011
Misleading Advertising
Following on from yesterday's post on Racing Tipsters, one of the motivations for setting up Peerless Racing is to expose the level of misleading advertising which has a negative impact on the betting industry. Listing recent winners is a common ploy, but is totally meaningless when it comes to assessing the profitability of following the recommended advice.
Advised prices are all well and good, but when those prices are nigh on impossible for most people to obtain then it is hardly a fair way to ask people to judge you.
It is also a fact that it is not possible to obtain independently verified profit and loss information on tipsters from the Racing Post, who their advertisers claim to have proofed their selections to. If this surprises you, just email the Racing Post Editor, Bruce Millington, and ask him why he does not provide overall records for all of the tipsters who appear in his paper. The only ones you hear about are the ones who actually make a profit. Fair play to Tom Segal, Kevin Pullein, and others who will consistently make you a long term profit if you can obtain the prices they advise. But Richard Birch, Tony Cascarino, and the many others who are given column inches every week? Where are their profit and loss records, Mr. Millington?
Advised prices are all well and good, but when those prices are nigh on impossible for most people to obtain then it is hardly a fair way to ask people to judge you.
It is also a fact that it is not possible to obtain independently verified profit and loss information on tipsters from the Racing Post, who their advertisers claim to have proofed their selections to. If this surprises you, just email the Racing Post Editor, Bruce Millington, and ask him why he does not provide overall records for all of the tipsters who appear in his paper. The only ones you hear about are the ones who actually make a profit. Fair play to Tom Segal, Kevin Pullein, and others who will consistently make you a long term profit if you can obtain the prices they advise. But Richard Birch, Tony Cascarino, and the many others who are given column inches every week? Where are their profit and loss records, Mr. Millington?
Saturday, 10 September 2011
Racing Tipsters
Pick up a Racing Post and take a look at the numerous advertisements for racing tips. Have you ever wondered why people ring the numbers or take out a subscription? The reason many people do get sucked in is that they believe that by following the advice of these people they will make money from betting on horses. Before picking up the phone, or clicking on the Paypal link, you might want to read the following link:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2001/jun/17/horseracing.theobserver3
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2001/jun/17/horseracing.theobserver3
Friday, 9 September 2011
Welcome to the Peerless Racing Blog
Welcome to Peerless Racing, a new advisory service which we are confident will prove in time to be the most successful service of its kind.
The aim of Peerless Racing is to use our years of experience and our extensive network of contacts to help you to show a consistent profit from your betting.
To receive our selections, you simply need to email us at peerlessracing@gmail.com and we will add you to our mailing list.
We take your privacy very seriously and will not divulge your details to any third party without your express permission. Please note that if you choose to follow this blog, your name may automatically be displayed in the Followers list.
The aim of Peerless Racing is to use our years of experience and our extensive network of contacts to help you to show a consistent profit from your betting.
To receive our selections, you simply need to email us at peerlessracing@gmail.com and we will add you to our mailing list.
We take your privacy very seriously and will not divulge your details to any third party without your express permission. Please note that if you choose to follow this blog, your name may automatically be displayed in the Followers list.
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